Wi2026: Market Trends, Retail Insights, and Growth Strategies
"Books remain one of the discretionary spending bright spots," said Brenna Connor, U.S. books industry analyst at Circana, during a talk last week at Winter Institute 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pa. "People are cutting back overall, but many of them are not cutting back on books."
Connor took the stage last Thursday to share market trends, retail insights, and growth strategies for the U.S. trade book market. She began with an overall look at retail, which saw consumers "pulling back" from discretionary purchases while increasing spending on crucial items.
That trend surfaced in 2024 and persisted in 2025, with higher prices in essential areas "putting a squeeze" on consumers. At the same time, prices have continued to rise and long-term unemployment has continued to tick up, and consumer mood on the economy has "really soured."
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| Circana's Brenna Connor | |
However, the data about books tell a different story. On a weekly basis across 2025, books outperformed general merchandise most of the time, and while the last holiday season was "lackluster" for general retail, "books held steady." Though overall growth in units and dollars were modest, Connor noted, it should be seen as a "real win" given what's happening in retail overall.
Looking at 20 years of data on the U.S. market, Connor pointed out that the industry has shown "remarkable stability." Despite whatever is happening in the broader economy, consumers "continually come back to books."
2021 marked the highest year of print book sales in Circana's data set, Connor said, and in the years since the pandemic, the industry has settled into a "higher baseline," with sales volume higher than it was pre-pandemic. That higher volume has held steady over the last few years, and Connor expects to see that continue.
Breaking down the 2025 data by category, Connor said the "biggest story" was the return to growth for the children's market. It has been in decline since 2022, and 2025 marked the first time "we've seen it grow," she noted. While the growth is encouraging, it does come with a caveat: it was driven by "doing formats," such as coloring books, activity books, and stickers books, many of them licensed, rather than by traditional reading.
Although activity books do "offer valuable benefits for children," Connor explained, such as hands-on learning and reductions in screen time, this trend could potentially signal a "shift away from traditional reading." That in turn would have "concerning, long-term implications" for literacy and reading development among children, and it is worth asking how to "bring kids back to narrative reading" and how to support parents in "carving out time to prioritize reading at home."
Looking at children's sales trends by age range, both infant readers and young readers saw growth, while middle-grade readers continued to decline. That decline has been going on for a few years, Connor said, and she highlighted the fact that today's middle-grader readers would have started kindergarten during the pandemic. And though middle-grade readers "remain a challenge," Connor said she is less concerned about teens, many of whom might be "reading up" into adult categories.
One future bright spot, she added, is data showing an increase in parents saying they want to limit screen time for children. There is also a "broad opportunity" for stores to position children's books themselves as experiences, as consumers prioritize family experiences when making purchases.
For adult books, there is "continued strength" in adult fiction, with a lot of it coming from genre, while adult nonfiction remains the "most challenged segment of the market," despite some "pockets of growth."
In adult fiction, growth drivers include manga and graphic novels, romance, classics, and science fiction. Romantasy, which had been a "key driver," has softened a bit in the second half of 2025, and Connor suggested romantasy readers may be branching out into other genres, particularly science fiction. She also marked a trend of "dark themes" fueling fiction reading, with dark romance, dystopian fiction, murder mysteries, and horror seeing growth.
By contrast, the growth in nonfiction categories is being driven by "lighter themes." There have been gains in mindfulness and journaling, cozy crafting, comfort cooking, self-improvement, and especially religion and spirituality. In fact, Bibles and religion constituted the "standout growth area of 2025," with Bible sales hitting a 21-year high.
The increase in Bible and religion sales, Connor said, is interesting given Pew survey data showing that Christian affiliation in the U.S. is flattening. One explanation may be that those who already identify as Christian are "leaning into it more."
Connor also wondered whether categories like travel and cooking, which have seen declines because of free resources available online, may see a bit of resurgence as AI content continues to surge. There is potential for consumers to return to books as "trusted, credible sources."
Looking ahead, Connor identified some potential tailwinds, including many Americans expecting higher tax refunds this year. While consumers generally will prioritize savings or paying down debt, some of it could "trickle into retail." For headwinds, the macro economic factors Connor identified will persist, with consumer wallets likely to get tighter.
For independent booksellers in particular, there is cause for optimism, as the indie channel grew 6% in unit sales in 2025. Among consumers there is "greater interest in and higher intent to" shop at local independents, and a "decline in intent" to shop at big-box stores and other large retailers.
"What you all offer as independent booksellers cannot be replicated by an algorithm or a warehouse," Connor said. "It's curation, it's community, and it's an experience that makes people feel something. This is your competitive advantage, and the data is proving it out." --Alex Mutter








"Customers rolling in Saturday for a reopening event at the Bookmiser independent bookstore saw a whole new space," 


"Over the weekend,
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Yesterday was National Read Across America Day, and 
Book you're an evangelist for:
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