"Between the economy and breaking news and tariffs and free floating anxiety, booksellers are facing uncertainty similar to the early days of the pandemic," said Allison Hill, CEO of the American Booksellers Association, "and some of those early 2020 lessons will serve them well moving into Q4 2025."
Cash, Hill continued, "is going to be king again," and she urged booksellers to prepare to "really watch cash flow," as sales may be unpredictable, especially early in the season. Booksellers facing a slow start may not know if it will stay that way, and may have to "thread the needle" of pulling back, but not too much, in case the season does pick up.
Fluctuations in the economy, as well as fluctuations in the perception of the economy, may also make some consumers leery of spending. For some indies, book bans and challenges are already starting to affect school sales, which would exacerbate any financial concerns. And typically, retail sees an increase in fraud and cybersecurity issues when the holidays ramp up.
While books are excluded from the Trump administration's tariffs, that doesn't tell the whole story, Hill noted. For example, things like ink could be impacted, resulting in increased prices. On the nonbook side, which Hill noted is "such a big part of profitability," tariffs are a "significant concern." The new normal seems to be, she continued, that "anything could change at any time."
Based on her talks with publishers, Hill said there are "shared concerns around consumer confidence and consumer spending," but publishers seem to be "feeling excited about books for Q4." Hill also expressed optimism about publisher support for this year's Indies First campaign.
Despite the uncertainty and potential challenges, Hill said, Q4 represents a "tremendous opportunity" for indie booksellers. A lot of what the ABA is seeing points to people "really showing up" to support indies and small businesses, and there have been encouraging signs of consumers making a point of shopping locally and keeping their money in their communities. Bookstores can also deliver "exactly what people need right now."
"Holding on to the joy of bookselling and sharing that joy with customers," Hill said, "I think is going to be critical to success in terms of sales, but also to everyone's well being."
Arsen Kashkashian, co-general manager and book buyer at Boulder Bookstore, Boulder, Colo., said his approach to Q4 is "similar to years past." He's buying "pretty aggressively" on titles that he thinks could sell well or have printing issues if they take off, and he's looking for opportunities to feature books in fantasy, horror, and romance genres, which have all done very well this year.
He's also looking carefully at deluxe editions. While there are "so many of them," he's confident that at least a few will "really work," and as an example he mentioned the deluxe edition of Elena Ferrante's My Brilliant Friend. He is also bullish on "good nonfiction and cooking," such as Good Things by Samin Nosrat and upcoming memoirs by Margaret Atwood and Joy Harjo.
Asked about what he's hearing from reps, Kashkashian said they seem to be "playing the same song as usual," including the suggestions about ordering large quantities on titles that will not have time to be reprinted before the holidays. He doesn't think it's "any different than what's been going on for the last 15 years or so," and said it seems to be an improvement from the Covid years when the supply chain was most disrupted.
When it comes to gifts and nonbook items, most of the store's focus is on local products, Kashkashian explained. Some prices have gone up, and with international products like journals, prices have been fluctuating "depending on the tariff news of the day." It's frustrating on the pricing side, and the store made the point of ordering up on some items like Moleskines. Mostly, though, "we are treating it like last year."
Ultimately, Kashkashian is optimistic about the end of the year. "I think after the ups and downs and the chaos of this year, people are going to want to celebrate the holidays. I believe people are going to seek refuge in their independent bookstores during the fourth quarter and there will be plenty of great books for them to revel in." His one concern, he added, is that "something really crazy could happen," but "how can you live your life waiting for that to happen?"
Kenny Brechner, owner of Devaney Doak & Garrett Booksellers in Farmington, Maine, said his store's approach this year is "nothing too unusual," though the team is "sticking a bit more tightly" to books they are confident about.
Sidelines buying, however, has been a "totally unsettled roller coaster," and the store put a lot of time into bringing stock in before prices rose. In fact, DD&G "brought in more stock earlier than I ever have in prior decades," and this year they stuck "almost entirely to stock I knew would sell," Brechner said.
In general, sidelines sales have been steady but have taken a "great deal of behind the scenes work," he noted. And some products that the store really wants "have been back-ordered for months" due to a "lack of production in China."
Asked about his general outlook for the end of the year, Brechner said he had no idea whether customers will "continue to suspend disbelief economically" or if "terrible economic policy, systemic deception, and denial, and general toxic nausea" will cause serious disruptions. He added that the removal of federal funding support for education in Maine not only threatens the well-being of the community but is also a "source of fiscal concern for us as a bookstore." (Farmington is home of the University of Maine at Farmington.)
But at the same time, he said, "customer response to the current moment has been to appreciate and support the bookstore more." --Alex Mutter
A follow-up article with input from more independent booksellers will run in the coming days.